The Self Made Pundit
Tuesday, March 02, 2004
SCIENTIFIC SUPER TUESDAY PREDICTIONS: A mathematical analysis of my gut feelings leads me to predict a Kerry blowout today with Kerry winning 10 out of 10 states.
Even if -- a big if -- Edwards finishes a close second in one or two states (perhaps GA and/or Minn.), that won't be enough to keep him alive given the likely magnitude of Kerry's victory tonight. The only question is whether Edwards will now admit that he has been eliminated or limp into Southern Super Tuesday next week for another round of punishment.
Since only a fool would predict the general election results this far out, I won't predict the winner of the Kerry-Bush race. However, at this point I actually give a slight edge to Kerry. As a matter of physics, there are only so many lies that the American public can absorb. Fortunately, since Bush ignores the scientific community whenever it says what he doesn't want to hear, he has failed to grasp this elementary scientific principle. I suspect the Bush administration might have pushed its luck and exceeded the saturation point for mendacity a year earlier than they would have liked.
If I were foolhardy, I might even predict that Kerry will win 50% to 48%, taking all the Gore states plus NH, WV, Ohio and Nevada. Not being foolhardy, I'll only speculate that Bush will have to become far more creative in his deceptions and evasions if he hopes to become the first two-term Bush.
Perhaps a mission to Jupiter might do the trick.