The Self Made Pundit

I'm just the guy that can't stand cant. ___________

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Tuesday, November 02, 2004

While the Self Made Pundit has unfortunately been too busy (with work and his own campaign at the local level) to do much blogging of late, there's always time for wild speculation!

Using the most advanced techniques of psephology (in other words, hunches based on decades of obsessing about elections), the Self Made Pundit is ready to call the election for Kerry.

The polls out yesterday mostly showed a swing to Kerry. Fox (!) had Kerry going from a 5 pt. deficit to a tie Suday to a 2 pt. lead yesterday. Gallup, which gave Bush a 5 pt. lead last week is now calling it 49-49 among likely voters and Kerry ahead by 2 among registered voters. I continue to believe that the likely voter models are going to be less reliable than registered voter surveys this year due to the Democrats' successes in registering and getting ticked off at Bush.

My final prediction (unless I change my mind this afternoon) is that Kerry wins by more than 4 pts, with the breakdown something like this:

Kerry: 51.2% with 316 Electoral Votes (Gore states plus OH, FL, NH, NV)
Bush: 47.0% with 222 Electoral Votes
Nader & others: 1.8%

I view Congress as a little trickier to predict with the size of Kerry's victory determining the final outcome:

Senate: Democratic net gain of 1 or 2

House: Democratic net gain of 8 to 14

I can't believe that unprecedented numbers of voters have been standing in line for hours for four more years of the same incompetence.